A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
